TIME FREEDOM TRADING

The WTF PRE-MARKET REPORT

FRIDAY, JULY 25, 2025​
"Trade the Turn. Defend the Edge. Compound to Freedom."

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Market at Peak Momentum

Markets continue trading at record highs as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and related indices have extended their winning streaks into late July. This rally has been underpinned by strong Q2 earnings—over 80% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations—and standout performances in AI‑heavy tech names like Alphabet, fueling optimism despite macro risks.

Weekly Highlights & Earnings Takeaways

• Tariff‑impacted earnings: General Motors warned that tariffs could eat into profits by $4‑5 billion despite beating forecasts, signaling how policy is squeezing industrial margins
• Tariff-neutral or benefit cases: Other firms, especially in tech and consumer-facing segments, reported earnings largely unaffected or even boosted by artificial‑intelligence‑led growth. The contrast underscores resilience in sectors insulated from cross-border cost pressure.
• Macro data supportive: Retail sales in June came in stronger than expected; inflation measures aligned with forecasts; jobless claims softened; service‑sector activity picked up—reinforcing confidence in Fed patience.

Coming Attractions: Next Week & Pre‑Fed Drift

Key Events on Deck

• Mega‑cap tech earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta roll out—expected to set tone for broader index trajectory
• Federal Reserve meeting and rate decision by the end of the month. Markets largely expect no change, though pressure mounts for a cut by September
• August 1 trade & tariff deadline looms: Trump administration may escalate tariffs to 15‑50% on countries that fail agreements. EU, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia all racing to strike deals to avoid higher duties
• JOBS DATA and PCE and 38% of S&P Earnings Coming next week. Will be a full schedule!

Geopolitical & Trade Context

• President Trump is in the EU this weekend, pressing for final tariff negotiations with the UK and European Commission ahead of August deadline. The UK secured more favorable terms (including zero steel via quota) than the EU, which may face tougher tariffs if deal falters
• While an EU–U.S. trade deal identifying a 15% baseline tariff seems close, unresolved concerns remain around sector-specific rates—particularly in steel and autos—with EU industries still pushing back.

SWOT Snapshot — Friday, July 25, 2025

Strengths

• Market leadership from AI-enabled tech names delivering strong earnings.
• Economic data holding up well; Fed likely to remain on hold, possibly easing later in the fall.

Weaknesses

• Valuations at record extremes; any earnings disappointments could trigger a pullback.
• Tariffs still unresolved; auto and industrial names face direct cost headwinds.

Opportunities

• If the EU deal is finalized favorably—or broader deals with Japan, Philippines, Indonesia succeed—this could further buoy equities into August deadline.
• A potential rate cut on the horizon (September), plus ongoing liquidity, could power a final leg higher.

Threats

• If trade talks collapse or tariffs escalate in early August or if the EU retaliates with $100B counter‑tariffs.
• Surprising Fed hawkish tone or domestic political volatility might shake investor certainty.

Meme‑Stock Update & Caution

• The resurgence in meme‑style trading has returned, with a fresh cohort dubbed the “DORKs” (Krispy Kreme, Opendoor, Kohl’s, GoPro, etc.) seeing sharp rallies of 30–70% in recent days—none backed by meaningful fundamentals.
• Opendoor soared over 330–440% in July, before plunging more than 20% in a single session—classic volatile short‑squeeze behavior.
• Krispy Kreme soared nearly 39% on social hype, with high short interest (~28%), though its fundamentals remain weak.
• Analysts warn that while the broad market remains supported by earnings and macro strength, these meme‑style rallies are speculative and often short‑lived, and may serve more as a warning signal of rising retail exuberance, not a pivot point.
• Unlike the 2021 GameStop mania, today’s meme stocks face moderate borrowing costs and better liquidity models, limiting extreme squeezes—though they still carry high crash risk.

⚠️Cautionary Notes for Traders

• These trades are driven by sentiment and technical momentum, not earnings or business improvement.
• Rapid reversals are common; participants often chase rallies and sustain big losses once they unwind.
• As market breadth narrows and the rally is concentrated in mega caps, esoteric speculative fervor signals potential complacency creeping into the broader market

Summer Weekly Cycle & Friday Pattern

• Historical summer seasonality: July is traditionally one of the stronger months for equities—often among the top performing months for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the past decade. In presidential election years, the summer rally (June through August) has historically produced gains about 73% of the time, with average returns around 3.7%—stronger than non-election years.
• Weekly trend behavior: Markets frequently build into Friday, and Friday has long been seen as the best day of the week for stocks, though that edge has diminished in recent decades.
• Current cycle: Today marks the 5th consecutive up day to close the week. Notably, none of these days saw a move greater than 1%—a melt‑up pattern, but also a sign of potential exhaustion. Momentum markets can stretch, but historically when weekly runs reach five without a pullback, profit taking often sets in.
• Seasonal caution: Analysts at SentimenTrader and MarketWatch warn that late‑July marks the historically weakest seasonal period, lasting through mid‑October. After strong summer rallies, a short-term shake‑out is more probable—even in election years .

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Mindset Moment of the Day

In trading—and in life—we navigate cycles: expansion, peak, correction, reset. The market is at an all‑time high, and the catalysts ahead—earnings, tariffs, Fed policy—could usher in either continuation or reversal. Prepare mentally to flow with the cycle: be clear‑headed in optimism, guarded in risk, and ready to pivot. Lower rates could lift markets further through August, but storms may come if policy disappoints. Your mindset matters more than your position: stay nimble, anchored in truth, confident in cycles.

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Weekly Summary Recap

• Five up sessions in a row, each smaller than 1%, closing at all‑time highs.
• A long streak without a >1% daily move is a flag: markets tend to revert or pause before charging again.
• While seasonal data supports July strength, the late‑July window is prone to choppiness or consolidation .

Market Takeaway & Strategy

• Up five days in a row with sub‑1% moves: momentum is intact but vulnerable to pause.
• Seasonal data supports strength through July—but late‑July historical patterns are cautionary.
• Friday patterns often end in intra‑week profittaking, especially after streaks.
• Next week’s catalysts (big tech earnings, Fed meeting, tariff deadline) will test whether the cycle extends or corrects.
• Strategy: lighten exposure in overheated names, use any pullback for optionality, and stay nimble into the Fed and trade talks.

End of week: strong—but eyes wide open. Be ready to pivot if the summer cycle shows its classic breathers. Let me know if you’d like setup ideas for any names or sectors into next week.

TRADE YOUR E.D.G.E. = Exceptional Discipline Generates Excellence

Your edge =

✔ Trade the T.U.R.N.™

✔ Follow the E.D.G.E.™ Protocol

✔ Compound through consistency

Your Tactical Reminder:

• Follow the T.U.R.N. Framework
• Don’t trade headlines—trade setups.
• Watch for post-earnings retracements
• Track money flow with SWOT—then rotate.
• You’re just one trade away.

Time Freedom awaits!

—The Bald Bull | Time Freedom Trading™

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The market pays those who wait for the turn and strike with conviction.​
​See you on the next trade.

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