Time Freedom Trading 2025.09.02 Tuesday - The WTF - PRE MARKET REPORT


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TIME FREEDOM TRADING

"Trade the Turn. Defend the Edge. Compound to Freedom."

WTF PRE-MARKET REPORT Friday, SEPTEMBER 2nd 2025

Welcome back from the holiday… and welcome to September—the market’s ugliest cousin at the family reunion. Historically, it’s the lowest-performing month of the year. And this year? Trump’s tariff tantrums, “back-to-school flu” (COVID tick-ups included… yours truly included 🤧), and warning season lurking like a shark under the waves all make this September one to respect, not romanticize.

Macro charts are flashing: potential turn, correction brewing. This is not the month to YOLO into noise—it’s the month to confirm the cross and trade accordingly.

The official end of summer is here. The quarter’s backstretch is in play. Earnings season is closing, warning season is opening, and the real traders will rotate into volatility while the tourists get smoked.

Premarket Movers – Post-Labor Day Shakeout

  • PepsiCo — +6%. Elliott Management takes a $4B stake. Activist fizz in the cola giant = catalyst city.
  • Kraft Heinz — Flat. Splitting into two companies: “Global Taste Elevation” (Heinz, Kraft Mac) vs. “North American Grocery” (Oscar Mayer, Lunchables). Not yet a breakout, but structure-shifting.
  • Constellation Brands — -8.3%. Cut full-year guidance, margin hangover. Booze names wobbling.
  • Signet Jewelers — +3.8%. Earnings beat, raised guidance. Bling season isn’t dead.
  • Nio — +1.5%. Record August deliveries (31,305), but earnings disappointment. Rotation story more than earnings story.
  • Air Lease — +6%. Merger deal with Apollo, Brookfield, SMBC, Sumitomo. $28.2B valuation with debt included. Big capital chess.
  • Cytokinetics — +27%. Heart drug trial success = biotech rocket fuel.
  • Lam Research — -3.7%. Downgraded to underweight at Morgan Stanley. 2026 growth doubts weigh on semi sentiment.
  • Corning — +1.3%. UBS upgrade. AI-driven glass demand. Yes, even glass is in the AI boom.
  • Biogen — +1.6%. FDA approval for injectable Alzheimer’s drug. Long runway.
  • Alibaba — +1%. AI chip development adds spice. Quiet strength.
  • Newmont — +2%. Gold at record $3,508.50. Miners catching shine while the dollar shakes.

September Seasonality Setup

Strengths: Gold’s breakout gives hedgers a safe haven. AI rotation still fuels both tech hardware and peripheral plays (Corning, Biogen). Activist investors (PepsiCo) are stirring pots—this adds catalysts.

Weaknesses: September itself. It’s statistically a weak month and often delivers corrections. Earnings season winding down = fewer catalysts, more guidance cuts (Constellation’s proof). COVID uptick adds health-sector noise.

Opportunities: Rotation season is ripe. Precious metals, activist plays, biotech trial wins, and restructuring stories (Kraft Heinz split) create asymmetric trades. Volatility is a trader’s playground when you prep with precision.

Threats: Trump’s tariff uncertainty remains a market overhang. Fed policy mid-month could amplify whipsaws. Warning season could hit consumer staples, retail, and discretionary. A correction is on deck if technicals confirm.

WTF Report Add-On: September Tendencies Cheat Sheet

September isn’t a month, it’s a test. Historically, it’s the weakest month for stocks, but that weakness hides patterns you can weaponize.

Historical Seasonality

  • Average S&P 500 return in September: negative (the worst month of the year).
  • Post-Labor Day → markets often drift lower as big money rotates out of summer beta-chasing and into Q4 positioning.
  • Warning season kicks in: companies start lowering guidance into year-end.

Sector Rotation Tendencies

  • Defensives strengthen → utilities, staples, healthcare often hold better.
  • Tech and discretionary fade → stretched names take the brunt of corrections.
  • Precious metals shine → gold often spikes as traders hedge volatility (Newmont move is textbook).
  • Energy rotation → crude demand shifts with fall refinery runs, often bringing volatility in oil majors.

Volatility Patterns

  • VIX typically rises in September → traders price in uncertainty, Fed meetings, and Q3 earnings warnings.
  • Intraday swings widen. The “No Trade Zone” is more important—waiting for confirmation avoids whipsaw.
  • Fed mid-month meetings often magnify swings (this September: rate cut debates + Trump tariff tweets).

Tactical Setups

  • Trade the Turn → wait for breakdowns to confirm, then fade the noise for retracements.
  • Follow money flow → when institutions rotate, you rotate. Don’t cling to “favorite” tickers.
  • Event-driven trades → activist stakes, spin-offs, FDA approvals (Pepsi, Kraft, Biogen, Cytokinetics) become high-conviction plays.
  • Precious metals & bonds → defensive hedges that trend while equities chop.

September Mindset Reset

  • Don’t chase. Confirm the cross.
  • Play defense first—capital protection is the offensive weapon in volatile months.
  • Volatility = income, if you’re disciplined.
  • October is often the rebound month, but September is where you earn the right to trade Q4.
"September is not for gamblers—it’s for grinders. The weak pray for luck; the strong prepare for rotation."

Mindset Moment - Welcome to September’s Storm

September isn’t a month to fear—it’s a month to refine. The amateurs try to fight seasonality; the pros rotate with it. Volatility is not a verdict; it’s an invitation. Your edge isn’t in prediction—it’s in preparation.

Remember this: You don’t trade noise—you trade the turn. Confirm the catalyst, respect the tide, and execute with patience. This is the month where discipline pays more than dreams.

“The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.” – Proverbs 22:3

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Why it matters: Markets in September are a proving ground. The reckless get wrecked; the prepared preserve and prosper. Refuge isn’t hiding—it’s positioning.

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