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TIME FREEDOM TRADING

"Trade the Turn. Defend the Edge. Compound to Freedom."

WTF PREMARKET REPORT Wednesday, AUGUST 20th, 2025

Futures are leaning red after yesterday’s gut punch in tech—the largest drop since April—as risk-off momentum drags into a fourth day. The fade-the-trade setup is on deck, with Wall Street holding its breath until Powell takes the mic at Jackson Hole Friday. Today we get Fed minutes and more Fed talk, which means whispers, leaks, and linguistic gymnastics about rates. Translation: chop until clarity.

And while the Fed tightens its grip on the narrative, Uncle Sam just decided he wants a piece of the silicon pie—floating the idea of equity stakes in chip companies funded by the CHIPS Act. Government meddling plus tariffs equals sector headwinds and volatility fuel.

Retail earnings are the sideshow today, and the tape is showing winners and losers with no middle ground.

Premarket Movers

Target (TGT) — Down 10.5% after CEO Brian Cornell announced his Feb. 1 exit. COO Michael Fiddelke will take the reins. They beat earnings but traffic and sales slid. Wall Street said: “Thanks, but no thanks.”

Lowe’s (LOW) — Up 3% on an EPS beat ($4.33 vs. $4.24 est.) and raised guidance. DIY demand proving sticky.

Estée Lauder (EL) — Down 8% after warning tariffs will slice $100M from FY26 profits. Guidance came in lighter than expected. Lipstick recession confirmed.

Hertz (HTZ) — Up 9% after announcing pre-owned cars will now be sold on Amazon Autos. From car rental to car retail—Hertz wants to be the Carvana of Prime.

Analog Devices (ADI) — Up 3.8% after an earnings and revenue beat ($2.05 vs. $1.95 est., $2.88B vs. $2.77B). Raised Q4 guidance too. One chip name bucking the sector bleed.

TJX (TJX) — Up 4.4% after posting EPS of $1.10 vs. $1.01 est. Bargain hunting pays premium dividends.

La-Z-Boy (LZB) — Down 22% on weak EPS (47¢ vs. 53¢ est.) and soft guidance. Recliners fully reclined.

Alcon (ALC) — Down 11% after a revenue miss ($2.58B vs. $2.62B est.) and lowered full-year outlook. Vision blurred.

Toll Brothers (TOL) — Down 1.6% after narrowing unit delivery outlook. Luxury home demand softens at the edges.

Snowflake (SNOW) — Up 2.4% after BofA upgrade to buy. AI still the blizzard narrative.

Upstart (UPST) — Up 2.5% after JPMorgan upgrade to overweight. Fintech hope alive.

Gap (GPS) — Down 2% after Citi downgrade to neutral on tariff concerns. Fashion margin squeeze.

Chipmakers (MU, INTC, TSM, AMD) — Under fire after reports the Trump admin wants equity stakes in CHIPS Act-backed firms. Micron sank 5%, others slid ~1%. When Uncle Sam wants stock, investors think socialism, not capitalism.

SWOT Analysis for Wednesday 20,2025

Strengths: Select retailers (TJX, Lowe’s) proving resilient. Analog Devices shows strength despite chip drama. AI optimism (Snowflake, Upstart) keeps momentum in software.

Weaknesses: Yesterday’s tech selloff—the biggest since April—shook confidence. Target leadership shakeup and tariff hits (Estée Lauder, Gap) add pressure. Housing (Toll Brothers) showing cracks.

Opportunities: Volatility is the trade. Fade setups after three down days create tactical entries. Retail rotation (TJX, Lowe’s) offering defensive upside. AI and fintech upgrades signal institutional interest.

Threats: Friday’s Jackson Hole speech is the volatility landmine. Government muscling into chip equity ownership introduces a new structural threat. Tariffs remain a profit drag across consumer and tech. Tech weakness could become contagion.

Mindset Moment

End of summer isn’t the time to check out—it’s the time to gear up. Fall is historically volatile, and yesterday’s tech flush proves the tide can turn fast. This is the season for patience, precision, and preparation.

Translation: Most traders plow ahead blind. Time Freedom Traders prepare—because fall storms reward those with shelter and strategy.

Closing Word

Yesterday’s fade in tech was a warning shot. With three straight red sessions, whispers from the Fed, and Uncle Sam poking around in chip equity, the trade is clear: sit tight, wait for Friday’s detonation, and line up your sniper shot.

Because trading isn’t about chasing hype—it’s about compounding clarity. The fall harvest is coming. Position now, reap later.

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—The Bald Bull | Time Freedom Trading™

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