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WTF PREMARKET REPORT Monday, AUGUST 25nd, 2025

WTF Premarket Report – Monday, August 25th, 2025

The markets are shaking off their Jackson Hole hangover. Futures are fading a bit after Friday’s Fed-fueled pop, as the tape prices in an 85% chance of a September rate cut. The real question isn’t if we cut—it’s how much. A quarter point? A half? Or does Powell pull a “surprise and delight” right before Labor Day?

Meanwhile, Trump is reaching his hands into the cookie jar of capitalism, floating a potential sovereign wealth fund strategy tied to Intel. Ownership or control? That’s the trillion-dollar question. Sovereign wealth is power, and power never comes without strings.

Macro catalysts remain thick this week:

• Earnings spotlight:Nvidia—the halftime show of the entire quarter. Big dawg on the mic. Whatever NVDA says will ripple through tech, chips, and the AI trade. ( DELL, HPQ)
• And don’t sleep on crypto seasonality—Bitcoin pulling back into late summer has been more predictable than pumpkin spice lattes.

Key Events This Week

• All WEEK Fed speakers continue their post-Jackson Hole clarifications.
• Wednesday: Nvidia earnings build-up, sector rotation plays heating.
• Thursday: Jobless data—weekly labor snapshot. GDP.
• Friday: Core PCE release (inflation watch).

Today’s Premarket Movers

Pre-Market Movers

• Keurig Dr Pepper — Down 3% after announcing an $18B acquisition of Dutch coffee/tea player JDE Peet’s. Post-deal, KDP will split into two U.S.-listed companies: one for beverages, one for coffee. Investors not thrilled with the caffeine math.
• Verint Systems — Popped 12% after Bloomberg said Thoma Bravo is circling with a $2B buyout. Private equity still hunting for software deals.
• Furniture Stocks — Trump tariff probe strikes. RH -7%, Williams-Sonoma -3%, while Ethan Allen strangely pops +3%. Tariffs make winners and losers.
• Okta — Up 2% on Truist upgrade to buy, with a $125 PT. Analysts calling this the “inflection point.” Cybersecurity may be back in rotation.
• Nio — Rocketing +9% after unveiling its affordable ES8 SUV. $43K price tag under subscription model makes it one of their most competitive offerings yet.
• American Eagle — Down 3% after BofA downgrade to underperform. Even Sydney Sweeney can’t outshine tariffs.
• Intel — Up 2% after confirmation the U.S. government took a 10% stake. Uncle Sam is officially long INTC.

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Monday Kickoff

Strengths: Markets still holding Friday’s gains with momentum leaning bullish. The Fed pivot tone signals a softer policy backdrop into fall, fueling risk-on vibes. Nvidia earnings ahead give bulls a reason to stay strapped in.

Weaknesses: Furniture, retail, and consumer staples show strain under tariffs and stretched consumers. Futures drifting means conviction is thin. Crypto fading reminds us liquidity can vanish fast when seasonality kicks in.

Opportunities: Trump’s sovereign wealth fund whispers could open a new era of U.S. state-backed industrial plays—Intel as the first domino. Rotation into lagging sectors like autos (Nio) and identity security (Okta) offers fresh setups. Rate cut anticipation provides fuel for tech and growth names.

Threats: Tariffs remain a silent tax and a looming drag on retailers and consumers. If Nvidia whiffs, the whole AI sector risks a retracement. Fed missteps—cut too little, markets tantrum; cut too much, inflation fears return. That’s the razor’s edge we’re trading on.

Mindset Moment The Last Week of August

As summer winds down, volatility winds up. This week isn’t just about data—it’s about discipline. You don’t win August by swinging for fences in thin markets. You win by positioning for September.

Remember: inaction is an action. Patience pays. The great traders know when to hit and when to holster. As Dr. Brett Steenbarger teaches: performance is about selective intensity.

The market has its seasons. Summer fades, fall volatility begins. Your edge is knowing the time to press and the time to prepare.

Trading isn’t about starting hot, it’s about finishing with composure. Pride chases; patience compounds. Close this week not with noise, but with clarity—because time freedom isn’t earned in one trade, it’s stacked in consistent ones.

PRE-LABOR DAY MOVES!

This week starts a fresh cycle. Powell’s words will ripple into Monday’s open, September’s positioning, and Q4 rotations. The traders who prepare now won’t just react—they’ll rotate with the smart money.

So ask yourself: Are you starting the week like a tourist, or compounding like a tactician?

September is shaping up to be the most pivotal trading month of the year—Fed cuts, earnings rotations, and Trump tariffs chaos all collide. You don’t want to stumble into it guessing.

Dial into the Time Freedom Trading —your playbook for navigating catalysts like these with precision. Because one trade, one turn, one moment of clarity… could flip your September into a breakout month.

Back to School, Back to Wealth

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​

—The Bald Bull | Time Freedom Trading™

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The market pays those who wait for the turn and strike with conviction.​
​See you on the next trade.

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