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TIME FREEDOM TRADING

"Trade the Turn. Defend the Edge. Compound to Freedom."

WTF PREMARKET REPORT – TUESDAY, AUGUST 19th, 2025

The Grind of August

August is doing what August does best: grinding. Futures are mixed—Dow barely green, Nasdaq and S&P leaning red—as traders chew through housing data, earnings, and whispers from Jackson Hole.

Housing is showing split signals: starts jumped 5%, but permits slid almost 3%—builders are busy now, but cautious about tomorrow. Meanwhile, home completions ticked up, but year-over-year they’re still down double-digits. Translation? The U.S. housing market is limping forward with a cane, not sprinting into glory.

And just to spice things up, Europe’s flirting with peace talks on Ukraine, oil is down, gold is up, and the market feels like one giant August treadmill—lots of sweat, not much forward motion.

Premarket Movers

• Intel (INTC) – Up ~6% after SoftBank’s $2B bet at $23/share. Washington is also eyeing a stake. When Wall Street meets national security, you know the popcorn’s hot.
• Palo Alto (PANW) – +6% after a beat-and-raise quarter. Nir Zuk, the founder/CTO, is retiring. Cybersecurity sympathy rally lifted CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Fortinet too.
• Fabrinet (FN) – Down ~10% even though they beat earnings and guided higher. Proof that Wall Street’s favorite game is “sell the news.” Already +49% YTD.
• Viking Holdings (VIK) – -2% despite in-line EPS and a revenue beat. Six new river vessels incoming, but investors clearly aren’t booking the cruise yet.
• Best Buy (BBY) – +2% on launching its third-party marketplace. Think Amazon-lite, without Bezos’ spaceship.
• Xpeng (XPEV) – +3% after posting a smaller-than-expected Q2 loss. Tariffs didn’t kill the EV dream (yet).
• Tegna (TGNA) – +6% after Nexstar agreed to acquire it for $3.54B. Nexstar stock itself ripped +9%. Rare double win.
• Home Depot (HD) – +1% even after missing both lines for the first time since 2014. Investors shrugged since full-year guidance stayed intact.

Key Events Today

• Housing Data (July): Starts higher, permits lower, completions mixed. A classic “one step forward, two steps sideways.”
• Fed Focus: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is Friday. Expect markets to drift until then, hanging on every hint of cuts or stubborn hawkishness.
• Wyoming Blockchain Symposium (Aug 18–21, Jackson Hole / Teton Village) — SALT + Kraken host an invite‑only summit at the Four Seasons Jackson Hole; policy, investors, and builders in one room. Reuters flags Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman among speakers; SALT lists Aug 18–21 dates/venue. Context: Fits the Trump crypto agenda drumbeat into fall policy (House “Crypto Week,” stablecoin push, etc.).

SWOT Checkup

Strengths – Intel’s SoftBank lifeline boosts U.S. chips; Palo Alto earnings rally strengthens tech’s armor; housing starts suggest underlying construction resilience.

Weaknesses – Housing permits trending down, completions lagging YOY, and consumer demand softening. August volume is light—chop city.

Opportunities – Falling home prices + rising inventory could unlock buyer demand; Jackson Hole may bring dovish hope; selective stock rotation keeps tactical traders fed.

Threats – Mortgage rates still painful, “sell the news” reactions (Fabrinet, anyone?), and macro wild cards (tariffs, geopolitical shocks). August’s grind is a trader’s quicksand.

Mindset Moment

The market may drift, grind, or fake you out, but your job is clarity: trade the setups, not the noise. Some days the edge is action. Some days the edge is inaction. Remember: a no-trade is still a trade.

The Call to Action

Don’t let August grind you down. This is when discipline builds accounts while FOMO burns them. Imagine stacking one clean trade this week—just one—that compounds into your flywheel. That’s how freedom is built.

One trade. One turn. One moment of clarity.
You’re just one trade away from changing your life.

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—The Bald Bull | Time Freedom Trading™

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​See you on the next trade.

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